Friday, January 25, 2013

Survival Odds Grim for Native Plants Fighting Invaders

Invasive species are winning in the battle for survival against some native plants in a California reserve, according to a new study.

The research has troubling implications for plant hardiness, the scientists studying the plants said. While some researchers have believed the invaders merely supplement the native ecosystem, the new findings, published online earlier this month in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, show that a few of the original plants could die out in a few hundred years.

"What we see is a serious invasion, meaning that as one or more invasive species start to become abundant, the native plants shrink down in their habitat," said ecologist Benjamin Gilbert, who did field research during a temporary appointment at the University of California. He is currently with the University of Toronto.

Among other experiments, Gilbert and co-author Jonathan Levine planted plots of several native species, including the native flower Lasthenia californica, at the Sedgwick Reserve in the Santa Ynez Valley near Santa Barbara. Researchers then observed the plants' growth and modelled the long-term trend for the plants' survival based on the experimental results.

In general, Levine and Gilbert noted that the seedlings did not do very well in areas dominated by "exotic" grasses, such as Avena fatua, and that the population sizes of the native species are shrinking to critical levels.

Researchers have found that the number of total species in an area increases as exotics take hold and natives cling on to life. However, the native species are restricted to small "refugia," or isolated populations, located far apart from each other, which could hurt their long-term survival, Gilbert said.

Such isolated patches make the plants are more susceptible to damage frombeing hurt by disease or fire; plus, it's harder for them to disperse seeds.

"The native species are pushed out of the best habitat," Gilbert told OurAmazingPlanet. "The analogy for people is being taken off a really good diet ? it's getting them by, [but] it's not optimal."

Native species that have adapted to more challenging environments, such as rocky conditions, tend to fare better. "In this case, the only reason the natives seem to do well in these patches is it is so crappy for the invasives," Gilbert said.

As for protecting the native species, pesticides sometimes do more harm than good. It might be more effective, Gilbert suggested, to create a "corridor" of suitable habitat between patches of native species, which would help them again colonize larger areas.

One challenge, though, is that most of the native species develop naturally in small areas, although the invasives push them to sites that are much smaller than usual. This makes it difficult to study the impact of invasive species or to encourage the natural grasses and flowers to expand their habitats.

Follow Elizabeth Howell @howellspace or on Twitter?@OAPlanet. We're also on?Facebook?and Google+.

Copyright 2013 OurAmazingPlanet, a TechMediaNetwork company. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/survival-odds-grim-native-plants-fighting-invaders-213930736.html

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The Scary Trend Of Boomer Addiction | Glenbrooke News

In the psychedelic ?60?s, it seemed everyone was ?turning on?.? No one worried about using marijuana or other drugs, as it seemed everyone was doing it.

Now, many of those who came of age in that era are facing a real and rising problem of substance abuse.? How big of a problem is this?

The National Institutes of?Health?became so concerned about the increasing numbers of boomer addicts that it issued a consumer alert this year, its first, on prescription and illicit drug abuse signs and dangers on its website?NIHSeniorHealth.gov.

Boomers are visiting emergency rooms in record numbers for reactions to cocaine, heroin and marijuana.? Some experts blame the pressures of this stage of life.? Juan?Harris?is the clinical director f a boomer treatment unit at the Hanley Center, an addiction recovery center in Palm Beach, Fla.? As reported by ABC News, Harris cites ?divorce, loss of a job, loss of health, a lot of grief and loss issues? as factors that lead to boomer addiction.? According to the news report, Harris finds that older drug users are motivated to break their habit and have a good success rate with treatment.

Besides the illicit drugs, we have another problem with dependency and overuse of legal prescription medications.The average man over 50 takes four prescription drugs.? Boomers are frequently using anti-anxiety drugs, anti-depressants,and? prescription pain medications all of which can lead to dependency and addiction.

It?s even more problematic for boomers to be addicted to these medications than it is for a younger person. Boomers don?t have the metabolism we did in our 20?s.? We can?t get the drug processed out of our systems as fast as we did at a younger age.? The same dose a younger person takes can have a much more long-term and potentially dangerous effect on a person in her 50?s.

Even scarier, the necessary prescription medications boomers take to control cholesterol and high blood pressure can be disrupted by the use of marijuana or other illegal substances.? Age related chronic conditions like heart disease and diabetes are worsened by long term substance abuse.? There is a higher likelihood of a fatal outcome for an addicted senior.

What can we do about this?

If the experts tell us that treatment is often successful with older drug users, it makes sense to get treatment.? It also makes sense to help a loved one with a substance abuse problem find and get treatment if that loved one is willing. Yes, that?s a big ?if?. There are boomer-specific addiction treatment centers.? Perhaps the first step is to do some research and find out what treatment is available for someone you care about.

A good support system, a qualified treatment center, and the willingness to work on overcoming chemical dependency can lead to success.? If drug dependency is happening to someone you love, speak up.? You might be a vital encouragement and help to that person in getting free from the abuse.

Source: http://www.glenbrookenews.com/2013/01/25/the-scary-trend-of-boomer-addiction/

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Thursday, January 24, 2013

Minorities and Childhood Obesity Again

Sedentary lifestyle -- couch potato

Children need vitamin D for their bones. The lack of it can make them get rickets, a condition not seen much in the United States, although it is said to be increasing. Vitamin D is also necessary for protection against other problems like decaying teeth and respiratory infections. For some reason, kids who are overweight or obese experience more vitamin D deficiency.

A study of 12,000 kids between 6 and 18 years of age showed that the more overweight a child or teenager is, the more severe their vitamin D deficiency. There is also an ethnic angle, writes Renee Anderson:

Vitamin D deficiency was also found varying between different races like white (27 percent), Latino (52 percent) and black (87 percent) in obese children. Vitamin D deficiency is highly prevalent in overweight and obese children. The particularly high prevalence in severely obese and minority children suggests that targeted screening and treatment guidance is needed.

The American Academy of Pediatrics even goes as far as to call vitamin D supplementation ?essential? for children. They used to think 200 IU per day was sufficient, but now the recommended level has been raised to 400 IU per day. Oily fish, cheese, and egg yolks contain the nutrient, but the body seems very happy to manufacture it from sunshine. This points to another reason why ethnicity matters, because kids living in poverty often don?t have good play spaces or opportunities.

Kelly Fitzgerald wrote about a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention project that used information from the Pediatric Nutrition Surveillance Survey. They looked at several years worth of data on 26 million children from 30 states, and found that:

The number of kids who were obese decreased from 15.2 percent in 2003 to 14.9 percent in 2010.

That doesn?t seem like much of a reduction, 3/10th of a percent over seven years. But Fitzgerald says it?s meaningful because it is ?the first study of its kind to declare a decline in obesity among young kids from low-income families.?

Gilda Claudine Karasik writes:

Latino children are among the fastest-growing, youngest minority population and roughly 40% of Latino kids are overweight or obese. Mexican-American boys, for instance, have higher rates of childhood obesity than their non-Latino male counterparts and statistics show that young Latinas and African American girls are the least likely of all to engage in physical activity.

She mentions the checklist of reasons ? transportation problems, crime in the neighborhoods, schools with inadequate recreational resources, poor urban planning, the shortage of parks, the marketing of junk food, and so on, and also makes a very telling point:

Latino and African American youth are?engaged in media an average of nine hours a day?

Now, that is a real red flag. As Rose Eveleth in Scientific American reminds us, a study showed that unnecessary consumption of snacks amounts to about 167 calories per each hour of screen time. As the saying goes, ?You do the math.? Okay, we will. Nine hours, multiplied by 167 calories, is 1,503 calories. Yikes!

Eveleth also says:

Television watching, for example, turns out to be a better predictor of bad eating habits than does parental weight, race and income, and a child?s gender and ethnicity ? together ? according to a study by Harrison and her team. This is probably prompted by child-targeted food marketing, combined with a sedentary lifestyle and snacking while watching.

Your responses and feedback are welcome!

Source: ?Vitamin D Deficiency Common in Obese Kids,? Parent Herald, 12/25/12
Source: ?Obesity Rates Decline Among Young Kids,? Medical News Today, 12/27/12
Source: ?Politics of Childhood Obesity 101,? Politics365, 12/19/12
Source: ?Hidden Drivers of Childhood Obesity Operate Behind the Scenes,? Scientific American, 10/31/11
Image by FBellon.

Source: http://childhoodobesitynews.com/2013/01/23/minorities-and-childhood-obesity-again/

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Pike Brewing Present the 5th Annual Chocofest | Washington Beer ...

You are reading Pike Brewing Present the 5th Annual Chocofest by Kendall Jones, as originally posted on The Washington Beer Blog.

From Pike Brewing, here is the scoop on this year?s Chocofest ? Pike?s annual celebration of? romance, beer, chocolate, wine, spirits, food and more. Sunday, February 10, 5:00 til 8:00. This event is quite amazing ? too much good stuff all in one place.

Bigger and Better!

Expanded Venue and 69+ vendors?
Chocolatiers, Winemakers, and Brewers, Restaurateurs, Bakers, Cheese Makers.
Oysters and Beer!
Sweet and Savory
Benefit for Puget Soundkkeeper Alliance

PIKE?S FIFTH ANNUAL CHOCOFEST

FOREPLAY BEFORE THE BIG DAY: The Pike Brewing Company will celebrate Pike Chocofest on February 10, 2013.

A SWEET HISTORY: Pike Chocofest began in 2009 as a romantic experience, designed to expose the sensual relationship between chocolate and beer, as Seattle is a love-nest for both. Wine, spirits, cider and mead also cohabit-ate deliciously with chocolate, though perhaps they are not as orgasmic a combination as with beer?vintners, distillers, and mead makers might disagree. For years wineries have promoted red wine and chocolate; drinking eau de vie with chocolate truffles at the end of the meal is expected in Switzerland and France.

Guests can pleasurably decide for themselves at Pike Chocofest 2013, where a wide variety of potables will be paired with chocolate and savory comestibles; a tasting, as the saying goes, from ?soup to nuts? and ?sweet to savory.? It?s a virtual orgy for food and drink lovers! Owners and representatives from more than sixty vendors: local wineries, distilleries, cider makers, brewers, and importers, along with restaurants, brewers, bakers, cheese makers, a coffee roaster, too; all sampling their wares and sharing their stories.

SPECIAL PUB HOURS ON FEBRUARY 10: On February 10, the Pike Pub will close at 4:00 pm for regular service and will reopen at 5:00 p.m. for Chocofest guests who will be able to enjoy food and drink in Pike?s Microbrewery Museum, in each of the rooms in the pub, and in the brewery cellar.

BENEFIT FOR PUGET SOUNDKEEPER ALLIANCE: Pike Chocofest is a Valentine?s gift for everyone involved, including Puget Soundkeeper Alliance for helping to keep local waters pristine. Speaking of local waters, another love potion on which most everyone agrees will be featured at Pike Chocofest 2013: Taylor United oysters on the half shell.

Please check our Facebook page for updates on who will be showcasing their products this year.

Cost: $45 (all inclusive) with proceeds benefiting Puget Soundkeeper Alliance.

For reservations and information: Tara (206) 812-6604 | tshuttleworth@pikebrewing.com

Purchase tickets: http://chocofest2013.brownpapertickets.com/

Source: http://blog.seattlepi.com/washingtonbeerblog/2013/01/23/pike-brewing-present-the-5th-annual-chocofest/

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Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Architect leverages father's 30 Years Experience in Real Estate to ...

AQB Logo

Construction and architecture are areas that hardly see a low. We?ll always need building but most of us harbour this desire to have something special in our homes. Following his passion, Raja Arjun has launched A.Q.B. (Attention to Quality in Business) to capitalize on this market. Catering ?Handcrafted Apartments? to the burgeoning real estate market, this startup aims to leave a mark of its own in the sector. Founder, Raja Arjun has a clear vision to employ innovation best practices for the projects that his startup takes up.

The AQB Projects will primarily build ?handcrafted apartments? where small nuances of architecture will be focused upon- along with common amenities, the environment friendly aspect will also be looked at.

Raja Arjun

Sharing his entrepreneurial journey, Raja says that ?My interest in entrepreneurship has largely been influenced by the way I have been brought up. I fondly remember dreaming entire business strategies with my dad at the age of 7 . I can?t claim they were practical , but they laid the foundation of being an entrepreneur. While I have dabbled with failed or marginally successful ventures throughout my school life, my first successful business was at the age of 20, customizing bikes propelled me to start my entrepreneurial career. The venture taught me the importance of prompt deliverance, a quality which helped me gain the trust of investors. When It was time to graduate from Architecture school, I was approached by the same few, wanting to invest in my talent as an architect.?

By then, Raja had also completed 5 years of work and had a fair idea of what it takes to be a builder, what the market lacks and was plausible projection of the future. Waiting to take the plunge since long, Raja finally launched AQB in February 2011.

Today, Raja is assisted by his father, Raja Udayshankar, who has had over 3 decades of experience in this field and provides the moral, legal and financial support to his son. A B.Arch graduate with national acclaim for his studio work, Raja Jr has worked and travelled extensively from the time he joined architecture school. He handles the Design, marketing and finance, for AQB, and gets full support from his father. Raja adds that, ?What makes it exciting is that we are at the cusp of ?change? as the sector in India sees big financial leaps in the horizon. If the current plans are any indicator, this sector will surely benefit from companies like ours. Currently, we?re two projects old and we have four more in the pipeline.?

Some of the unique features of their projects include:

  • Hot air vents directed to dry clothes
  • Planter box in kitchen sill for growing herbs.
  • Specially designed windows to suit the climate. Hinges designed to reduce the weight of large openings.
  • Steps designed in way to be easy on the knees of the elders.
  • Slab is sandwiched with insulation so that the kids playing in the flat above your flat do not disturb you.
  • Handpicked trees in the atrium to facilitate circulation and exchange of air and to maintain a calming aroma inside the building.

As a young entrepreneur, Raja found it very difficult to be taken seriously. ?At the age of 20 , I completed my first project as a free-lance architect and engineer. It took my team 4 years to respect my decisions. This has been my most challenging task,? he says.

400 sqft flat

As a business, any builder would testify that the major challenge lies in making a project viable. It begins from scouting for the right piece of land, for the right use and the right price. To design a refreshing new project while adhering to archaic laws is another challenge , especially dealing with local officials often looking to establish local profit centers. Once the builder overcomes all these obstacles, the next challenge is to sell the idea to the customer. ?We also challenge ourselves to conceptualize projects differently. With ?Pixel One? we designed compact and properly planned apartments,? adds Raja.

To convert a small seed capital into a profitable business with 500 % growth a year is no mean feat that his young grad had displayed. Roughly 2 years into the market and with four exciting projects in the pipeline is certainly an achievement. Currently, AQB is working on bio-degradable and transportable homes. Material innovation will focus on introducing new construction techniques for walls and slabs.

Raja?s only wish is elimination of the current loopholes on the system. These include the ways people circumvent Government regulations and exploit the customers in order t make their venture profitable. ?This has a ?part to whole? effect on the urban infrastructure and eventually everyone suffers. Experience tells me this is true in all major cities of India and we can safely assume it is the same everywhere else as well. We should look at our Asian neighbors and learn to adopt and adapt construction laws relevant to our time,? he adds on a concluding note.

About Shyamal Dave

Shyamal is the Social Media Manager at YourStory. An Electronics & Telecommunication engineer from BVM Engineering College, Shyamal takes joys in dabbling with various social media platforms. A voracious reader, you can always drop in your book suggestions @shyamal4

Source: http://yourstory.in/2013/01/architect-leverages-fathers-30-years-experience-in-real-estate-to-launch-construction-startup-aqb/

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Confirmed! Adele Performing at Oscars -- We're Psyched!

Though it seemed like a given that Adele would perform at the Academy Awards, it's exciting to have the news finally confirmed. The British singer will officially sing "Skyfall" during the Feb. 24 ceremony, which is fitting because it's the first James Bond theme since 1981's "For Your Eyes Only" to be up for the best original song category.

Source: http://www.ivillage.com/adele-confirmed-perform-oscars/1-a-517014?dst=iv%3AiVillage%3Aadele-confirmed-perform-oscars-517014

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Do guns make us more safe? or less? ? Fabius Maximus

Summary:? The incidence of apparent murders justified under the ?stand your ground? laws raises questions about the vast number of claimed ?self-defense? gun use.? How many of these were justifications of improper use, not legitimate (and socially prestigious) self-defense? Fortunately there is research on the issue.? Here we look at samples of this research, most of which ruins the narrative created by the NRA.

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Contents

  1. What stories about guns reveal about us
  2. Do guns in the home make you safer?
  3. How are guns used?
  4. How are guns used by California teenagers?
  5. About studies showing massive rates of self-defense gun use?
  6. Other posts about guns in America

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(1)? The big picture:? What stories about guns reveal about us

This essence of The New America, what divides us from the America-That-Once-Was, is our willingness to believe what we?re told ? no matter what the evidence ? if it suits our prejudices. There?s no longer a reality-based community in this mad superpower.? We?ve examined this in a hundred posts on the FM website, looking at both Left and Right.? Recently we?ve examined inconvenient material about guns and climate, things partisans refuse to see least it ruin their beloved narratives.

When we open our eyes, returning to the skepticism and iconoclasm of our forefathers, then reform will again become possible in America.? How to make that happens might be the greatest challenge of our age for America.? Until then we remain pawns of our leaders, easily manipulated by our fears.
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(2) Do guns in the home make you safer?

?Risks and Benefits of a Gun in the Home?, David Hemenway, American Journal of Lifestyle Medicine, November/December 2011 ? Abstract:

This article summarizes the scientific literature on the health risks and benefits of having a gun in the home for the gun owner and his/her family. For most contemporary Americans, scientific studies indicate that the health risk of a gun in the home is greater than the benefit.

  • The evidence is overwhelming for the fact that a gun in the home is a risk factor for completed suicide and that gun accidents are most likely to occur in homes with guns.
  • There is compelling evidence that a gun in the home is a risk factor for intimidation and for killing women in their homes.

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Faith in America: Gods & Guns

Faith in America: Gods & Guns

On the benefit side, there are fewer studies, and there is no credible evidence of a deterrent effect of firearms or that a gun in the home reduces the likelihood or severity of injury during an altercation or break-in. Thus, groups such as the American Academy of Pediatrics urge parents not to have guns in the home.

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(3)? How are guns used?

(a)? ?In the safety of your own home?: results from a national survey on gun use at home?, Deborah Azrael and David Hemenway, Social Science & Medicine, January 2000 ? Abstract:

In the US, guns, particularly handguns, are typically brought into the home for protection. The wisdom of having a firearm in the home, however, is disputed. While guns appear to be a risk factor for family homicide, suicide and unintentional firearm fatality, no evidence has been available about gun use at home to intimidate family members and little about gun use to thwart crimes by intruders, or about the use of other weapons in home self-defense.

Over the past decade, various private surveys have asked questions about the respondent?s use of guns in self-defense. None, however, has asked detailed questions about the use of guns to threaten or intimidate the respondent. This study presents results from a national random digit dial telephone survey of 1,906 US adults conducted in the spring of 1996. Respondents were asked about hostile gun displays and use of guns and other weapons in self-defense at home in the past 5 years. The objective of the survey was to assess the relative frequency and characteristics of weapons-related events at home.

Thirteen respondents reported that a gun was displayed against them at home, 2 reported using a gun in self-defense at home, and 24 reported using another weapon (e.g. knife, baseball bat) in home self-defense. While we do not always know whose weapon was used in these incidents, most gun brandishings were by male intimates against women.

A gun in the home can be used against family members or intruders and can be used not only to kill and wound, but to intimidate and frighten. This small study provides some evidence that guns may be used at least as often by family members to frighten intimates as to thwart crime, and that other weapons are far more commonly used against intruders than are guns.

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(b)? ?Medical Care Solicitation by Criminals with Gunshot Wound Injuries: A Survey of Washington, DC, Jail Detainees?, John P. May, David Hemenway, Roger Oen, and Khalid R Pitts, Journal of Trauma-Injury Infection & Critical Care, January 2000 ? Ungated copy here. Abstract:

Background:? The best estimates of nonfatal gunshot wounds in the United States come from hospital emergency room data and may miss, among other things, wounded individuals who do not seek medical treatment. Criminals may be those least likely to rely on professional care for their wounds. This study provides evidence of whether medical care is solicited by criminals after gunshot wounds. In addition, the circumstances of the injury events are described.

Methods:? A case series of 79 detainees at a Washington, DC, jail who had previously been shot in 93 separate incidents were interviewed using a standardized questionnaire. Data were obtained concerning the age and race of the victim, the location of the wound, and the length of hospital stay.

Results:? In 92% of the incidents, respondents reported going to the hospital; one-third of those shot were hospitalized for more than 1 week. More than half (54%) had been hit in the head or torso, and 40% had a current disability attributable to the wound.

Conclusion:? Among these criminals, the vast majority reported that they obtained professional care for their gunshot wounds. Such evidence suggests that individuals previously thought unlikely to enter the medical care system after a firearm injury usually do so. Statistics on medically treated nonfatal gunshot wounds probably do not substantially underestimate the actual number of nonfatal shootings. ?

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(c)? ?The Relative Frequency of Offensive and Defensive Gun Uses: Results From a National Survey?, David Hemenway and Deborah Azrael, Violence and Victims, 2000 #3 ? Abstract:

Some controversy exists about the relative frequency of criminal and self-defense gun use in the United States. Using data from a national random-digit-dial telephone survey of over 1,900 adults conducted in 1996, we find that criminal gun use is far more common than self-defense gun use.

This result is consistent with findings from other private surveys and the National Crime Victimization Surveys. In this survey, all reported cases of criminal gun use and many cases of self-defense gun use appear to be socially undesirable. There are many instances of gun use, often for intimidation, that are not reported to the police and may not appear in official crime statistics.

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(d)? ?Gun use in the United States: results from two national surveys?,?David Hemenway, Deborah Azrael, and Mathew Miller, Injury Prevention, December 2000:

Objectives:? To determine the relative incidence of gun victimization versus self defense gun use by civilians in the United States, and the circumstances and probable legality of the self defense uses.

Methods:? National random digit dial telephone surveys of the adult population were conducted in 1996 and 1999. The Harvard surveys appear unique among private surveys in two respects: asking

  • open ended questions about defensive gun use incidents and
  • detailed questions about both gun victimization and self defense gun use. Five criminal court judges were asked to assess whether the self reported defensive gun uses were likely to have been legal.

Results:? Even after excluding many reported firearm victimizations, far more survey respondents report having been threatened or intimidated with a gun than having used a gun to protect themselves. A majority of the reported self defense gun uses were rated as probably illegal by a majority of judges. This was so even under the assumption that the respondent had a permit to own and carry the gun, and that the respondent had described the event honestly.

Conclusions:? Guns are used to threaten and intimidate far more often than they are used in self defense. Most self reported self defense gun uses may well be illegal and against the interests of society.

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(4)? How are guns used by California teenagers?

?Gun Threats Against and Self-defense Gun Use by California Adolescents?, David Hemenway and Matthew Miller, JAMA Pediatrics, April 2004:

Objective:? To assess hostile gun use against and self-defense gun use by adolescents.

Design, Setting, and Participants:? We use random-digit-dial telephone survey data collected from approximately 5,800 California adolescents, aged 12 through 17 years, between November 1, 2000, and October 31, 2001.

Main Outcome Measures:? The prevalence and correlates of reported hostile gun use against and self-defense gun use by adolescents, as well as qualitative information about these 2 types of gun uses. Correlates include age, sex, ethnicity, smoking, alcoholic binge drinking, threatening others, parents knowing their adolescent?s whereabouts in the afternoon after school, attending school, area urbanization and poverty level, and living in a household with a gun.

Results:? Approximately 4% of the adolescents reported ever having been threatened with a gun; only 0.3% reported using a gun in self-defense. Boys, smokers, adolescents who threatened others, and adolescents whose parents knew little about their whereabouts in the afternoon after school were more likely to report being threatened with a gun. Most episodes of self-defense gun use seem to be hostile interactions between adolescents with weapons.

Conclusions:? Far more California adolescents are threatened with a gun than use a gun in self-defense. Self-defense gun use is rare; many of the reported self-defense gun uses seem to be armed confrontations.

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(5)? What about the studies showing massive rates of self-defense gun use?

(a) ?Survey research and self-defense gun use: an explanation of extreme overestimates?,?David Hemenway, Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology (Northwestern), Summer 1997

Gary Kleck and Marc Gertz conducted a survey of civilian defensive gun use in 1992. In 1993, Kleck began publicizing the estimate that civilians use guns in self-defense against offenders up to 2.5 million times each year. This figure has been widely used by the National Rifle Association and by gun advocates. It is also often cited in the media and even in Congress. The Kleck and Gertz (K-G) paper has now been published. It is clear, however, that its conclusions cannot be accepted as valid.

Two aspects of the K-G survey combine to create severe misestimation. The first is the likelihood of positive social desirability response, sometimes referred to as personal presentation bias. An individual who purchases a gun for self-defense and then uses it successfully to ward off a criminal is displaying the wisdom of his precautions and his capability in protecting himself, his loved ones, and his property. His action is to be commended and admired.

Some positive social desirability response bias, by itself, might not lead to serious overestimation. However, combined with a second aspect of the survey? the attempt to estimate a very rare event ? it does. The search for a ?needle in a haystack? has major methodological dangers, especially where researchers try to extrapolate the findings to society as a whole.

Until the K-G study, no one had estimated that even as many as 1% of adult civilians had used a gun in self-defense in the past year. Nevertheless, assume that the actual incidence is 1%. On average, for every 100 individuals asked a ?Yes/No? question about the event, ninety-nine respondents will have a chance to be misclassified as a false positive. In 99 answers there is the possibility of positive social desirability response bias. However, on average only one respondent ? the one who actually did use a gun in self defense ? could possibly be misclassified as a false negative (e.g., if she forgot about the event). Even if the chance of forgetting is high, as long as there is any possibility of positive response bias, it is very likely that the survey finding will be an overestimate.

The fact that the survey is trying to estimate a low probability event also means that a small percentage bias, when extrapolated, can lead to extreme overestimates. Consider a survey finding which contains a 1% overestimate of positive responses. If the true incidence of the event is 60%, estimating it at 61% would not be a problem. But if the true incidence is 1%, measuring it as 2% would be a doubling of the true rate; and if the true incidence is 0.1%, measuring it at 1.1% would be an eleven-fold overestimate.

The K-G survey design contains a huge overestimation bias. The authors do little to reduce the bias or to validate their findings by external measures. All checks for external validity of the Kleck-Gertz finding confirm that their estimate is highly exaggerated.

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(b) Also see ?The Gun Debate?s New Mythical Number: How Many Defensive Uses Per Year??, Philip J. Cook, Jens Ludwig and David Hemenway, Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, Summer 1997

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(6)? Other posts about guns in America

  • The Founders talk to us about guns for a well-regulated militia,24 July 2012
  • Yet another mass killing in America. Watch the reactions on the Right, and learn., 17 December 2012
  • ?The right to shoot tyrants, not deer?, 11 January 2013
  • But Hitler confiscated guns, leaving Germans helpless!, 11 January 2013
  • Guns do not make us safer. Why is this not obvious? Part one of two, 14 January 2013
  • Let?s look at the Second Amendment, cutting through the myths and spin, 15 January 2015
  • Second amendment scholarship (using money to reshape America), 19 January 2013

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Source: http://fabiusmaximus.com/2013/01/23/guns-safety-48182/

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